You'll also cut your fluctuations if you always play at the same betting level, regardless of the action a particular casino can take. Some pros who choose to play in lower limit casinos to take advantage of the good conditions there limit themselves to the same level of action in casinos that could take larger bets, even though they have the bankroll to handle more action. They do this to avoid the stress of unusually bad losing sessions at higher stakes, and winning sessions at lower stakes, due solely to flux.

I also know a number of pros who have lost significant portions of their bankrolls trying to take advantage of some special promotions, such as when a casino temporarily puts some special rule or bonus payout on a game in order to lure in customers. I know one semi-pro player who lost close to half his bankroll in four hours, playing a game where blackjacks paid 2 to 1 instead of 3 to 2.

He was betting $500 per hand—the max bet allowed by the casino—throughout the play, although his normal high bet was $200. He figured that since he had more than twice his normal edge on the house, he could safely bet more than twice his normal high bet. He was very unlucky to have been dealt so few blackjacks during this four-hour time period, and the hands he was dealt were also more losers than winners. But if he would have stuck to his normal $200 high-bet unit for this promotion, he would have lost only about 20% of his total playing bank—still a big hit, but far less devastating.

• Blackjack Table-hopping Part2 (0)
• Blackjack Table-hopping (0)
• Blackjack – Watch Out For Scams (0)

Most people who watch and understand sports use advanced statistical concepts every day. Let's use baseball as an example. If I say a hitter has a batting average of .312, this is really a number taken from a frequency distribution chart. It tells us the frequency—.312—of the batter's hits, in relation to all of his trips to the plate that resulted in either a hit or an out. Another way of saying this baseball player has a .312 batting average would be to say that if I look at a chart that shows all of his hits and outs for the season, he got a hit 31.2% of the time.

The batting average, .312, or 31.2%, is the "frequency" with which he gets a hit. So, how freaky is it when this batter gets a hit? Not very—his batting average tells us that he gets a hit almost a third of the time.

Most baseball fans know that batting average does not include the times the player walked, or reached first by being hit by a pitch. If we factor in those at-bats, we will end up with his "on-base percentage." But neither batting average nor on-base percentage tells us how many total bases, on average, the player made per trip to the plate. If we just look at the on-base percentage, a guy who hits all singles could look just as good as a guy who hits lots of doubles and triples. So, to distinguish these players from each other we calculate their "slugging percentages." Virtually every spectator sport has mountains of data, based on frequencies, that the fans understand, despite never having taken a course in statistics.

I knew one baseball nut who used the players' batting averages to make a lot of money betting against his buddies. When a player who had a batting average under .333 came to the plate, he would often give 2 to 1 odds to any and all takers that the guy wouldn't get a hit. "My twenty against your ten," he would announce. In fact, he had the best of it, since a batting average below .333 means that the player gets a hit less than one out of three times to the plate. One night, after putting up five twenties against five tens, his spirits were dampened somewhat when the TV sportscaster announced that the batter, who was hitting .295, hit .500 against lefties with runners in scoring position! Whoops! You'd better make sure you're using the right freak chart for the bets you're making!

In any case, a "frequency distribution chart" simply shows us the percentage of times that various things occur. In blackjack, we can analyze a card counting system, and figure out the win/loss rate, by using a frequency distribution. We know that the count is always going up and down, and that sometimes the house has the edge, and sometimes the player has it. But to know exactly how much I expect to win or lose in a specific game, using some specific betting spread based on my count, I need more details. What I need to know is exactly how often the different house/player advantages occur. That is, what are the frequencies of player advantages of 1%, 2%, 3%, and so on? And what are the frequencies of these house advantages? If I know how often these occur in a game, I can figure out how much of a betting spread I need to beat the game. I can also figure out exactly how much I should bet at each specific count in order to get the highest win rate. And I can also use these frequencies to devise a strategy for minimizing my fluctuations.

Drawing up a frequency distribution chart that shows house/player advantages for a blackjack game is not rocket science. There are two ways to do it: You can run a computer simulation, and then study data the computer spits out; or, you can use a mathematical formula for deriving the precise data you seek. Since this is not a math course, I'm not going to explain the process. Think of this chapter as the sports section: In lots of daily papers, you'll find a chart that shows the batting averages, and sometimes the on-base percentages and slugging percentages for all the players, but you're not going to find all the raw data and the formulas used for calculating these totals. You don't need the formulas to understand that a .312 hitter is scary to most pitchers. If you have an interest in the math, get a book on probability and statistics. I just want you to understand what the data we're going to look at means.

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• Blackjack – Watch Out For Scams (0)
• Blackjack – Play With A Bigger Edge (0)

When you play at the black chip level or higher, most of your play will be in shoe games, primarily because they will offer you the best chance to avoid detection as a card counter. Vegas locals who play at the "chunky green" level also must put a lot of time into the shoe games. You will become a known face in the casinos, so you can't expose your strategy too often in hand-held games. As mentioned earlier, hand-held games are often counter traps, especially when you see only one or two hand-held tables in a casino that mostly offers shoe games. It is much easier (and quicker) for game protection personnel to observe a player's betting patterns while counting down one or two decks, than it is to see evidence of card counting while watching shoe games.

In shoe games, playing at the black chip level or higher, you will move around frequently, for two reasons. One reason is to further avoid detection; the second is because these games are difficult to beat if you play through all of the negative counts. In fact, if you avoid playing when your count tells you the house has the advantage, it is possible to beat these games without ever raising your bet!

This sounds ideal, but it's difficult to pull off. In order to use a table-hopping strategy, you must have crowd conditions that allow it. You want to see lots of open tables, but not tables so crowded that it's hard to get a seat. You want to see tourists and gamblers milling in the aisles, watching games in progress. If the aisles are relatively empty, you will stick out. Casino game protection personnel are well aware of "back counters" who are on the lookout for opportunities to jump into a shoe in progress with a big bet. In fact, the guys in surveillance have a slang term for back counters—"buzzards"—which describes the way the unskilled back counters look from the eye in the sky, as they endlessly circle the pit. To pull off a table-hopping strategy successfully, you want a nice crowd to blend into.

Let's look at some data on a typical six-deck game, assuming the house has an advantage of about 0.50% off the top—fairly typical—using a "frequency distribution" that shows how often the various house/player advantages occur, and what kind of an advantage you might get from table-hopping this game.

What is a "frequency distribution?" This is a mathematical term used by statisticians to describe how often something is expected to happen. I hate math terminology because it makes people who didn't take advanced math courses in college think they can't understand whatever concept the term refers to; I personally like calling frequency distribution charts "freak charts," because a frequency distribution simply answers the question, "how freaky is it?"

• Blackjack – Play With A Bigger Edge (0)
• Blackjack Table-hopping Part2 (0)
• Blackjack – Watch Out For Scams (0)

One of the most important methods that professional players use to limit fluctuations is to look for opportunities to play with a higher edge over the house. This tactic does not just slightly decrease flux; depending on how high an edge you can get, it can all but eliminate it. Some methods used by pro players cannot be discussed in print because we do not wish to alert casino game protection personnel to these ideas. One simple way, however, that even neophyte card counters can use to increase their advantage over the house is table-hopping.

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• Blackjack – Watch Out For Scams (0)
• Blackjack – Fixed Vs. Replenishable Bank (0)

In a later chapter, we will look at the advantages of team play, partner play, and playing on joint bankrolls with other players. These types of plays can be very profitable, and can smooth out negative fluctuations. But be very careful about ever combining your bankroll or results with any other player, unless you know him very well, or people you trust vouch for him. There are too many stories of card counters who spent a year or so studying, saving their money, and finally hitting Vegas or Reno with a hard-earned $5K or $10K bank, only to see their money disappear in a matter of days (or sometimes hours) after joining forces with a con artist who convinces them that they can both do much better if they "work together."

Getting ripped off for your whole bank is the biggest negative flux you'll ever encounter, and it is totally avoidable if you're careful about whom you associate with. Once you've got that licked, you can start looking at the more technical aspects of reducing flux.
If you're serious about playing professionally, the stuff that follows is all stuff you need to know. If it looks too complicated, then don't quit your day job. This is the stuff that the real pros live by. You either want it, or you don't.

• Blackjack – Play With A Bigger Edge (0)
• Blackjack – Fixed Vs. Replenishable Bank (0)
• Blackjack Table-hopping Part2 (0)

A major difference between pro and amateur approaches to card counting is that the pro must be more concerned with limiting his bankroll fluctuations, because more often than not he's playing on a fixed bankroll, and knows that he could go for months without a net win. He can't just count on next week's paycheck to fund his next trip. The pro is always on one long trip; it never ends.
Here are some of the things the new professional has to be aware of:

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• Blackjack Table-hopping (0)
• Blackjack – Watch Out For Scams (0)

If you are living solely on your gambling income, then whatever funds you have at your disposal is your fixed bankroll. In fact, it's worse than fixed; assuming you have living expenses, your bankroll is constantly diminishing unless you supplement it regularly with your gambling wins. So, before you estimate the size of your fixed bankroll—if you have no other source of income to cover your living expenses—deduct at least three months worth of living expenses from your total bank before determining your betting schemes.

With any fixed bank, you are in trouble if you lose such a substantial portion that you can no longer play at a level that will both keep a roof over your head and keep you in action at the tables. There are stories of. card counters who came to town with only a few thousand bucks and soon found themselves living in luxury, but failures are a lot more common.
Let's look at a few of the considerations of primary importance to pros and aspiring pros:

• Blackjack – Watch Out For Scams (0)
• Blackjack – Play With A Bigger Edge (0)
• Blackjack Table-hopping Part2 (0)